As the global economic landscape evolves, emerging markets are becoming a growth engine for precious metals trading. In 2025, ongoing policy shifts and market dynamics have created a mix of structural opportunities and risks. This article combines the latest policy and market data to provide investors with a decision-making framework for more precise investing in emerging markets.

1. Structural Opportunities

1) Policy tailwinds

India: lower gold import duties and capital gains tax

In the 2024–2025 fiscal year, the Indian government reduced the gold import duty from 15% to 6% and cut capital gains tax from 20% to 12.5%. This policy has stimulated gold demand, with Q1 2025 demand rising 17% year over year. Demand in India continues to increase, especially during traditional festivals and wedding seasons.

Singapore exchange innovation in gold futures

Singapore’s Abaxx exchange launched a one-kilogram physically deliverable gold futures contract, priced in U.S. dollars and delivered in Singapore. This gives Asian investors a more flexible tool. In Q2 2025, trading volume surpassed 50,000 lots, matching Asia’s physical delivery demand, which accounts for more than 60%.

Shanghai Gold Exchange fee incentives

The Shanghai Gold Exchange implemented a short-term closing fee waiver on its Au(T+D) contract, attracting many high-frequency traders and boosting market activity.

2) Industrial demand surge

Solar power driving silver demand

Global solar installations are expected to reach 450 GW in 2025, driving silver paste demand up by 3,600 tons, or 30% of industrial silver consumption. This makes silver a major beneficiary of energy-sector demand growth.

In Southeast Asia, a combination of demographic growth and livestream e-commerce has also lowered the barrier to buying gold, further supporting demand in Indonesia and Vietnam.

3) Geopolitical safe-haven demand

Middle East tensions lifting gold ETF inflows

In 2025, heightened tensions in the Middle East, especially military threats involving Israel and Iran, drove inflows into gold ETFs. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 123 tons in Q1 2025, with India and Turkey accounting for 40% of the inflows. This suggests that rising geopolitical risk will continue to support gold demand, particularly in emerging markets.

2. Core Challenges and Risks

1) Regulatory uncertainty

China’s new precious metals AML rules

China’s 2025 precious metals anti-money-laundering rules require enhanced due diligence for cash transactions above 100,000 RMB. This pushed some smaller investors toward electronic payments. In the short term, trading activity may decline by 15%, posing challenges especially for retail participants.

Ghana’s forced exit policy for foreign investors

Ghana forced foreign investors out of its local gold trading market, allowing purchases only through official platforms. This sudden policy shift increased foreign withdrawal risk.

2) Worsening liquidity segmentation

Liquidity differences across emerging markets are becoming more obvious.

• Mature markets like Singapore and Dubai typically have low spreads, around 0.5 USD/oz.
• Venezuela’s paper gold market, amid economic collapse, saw daily slippage above 5% and bid-ask spreads widen to 3%.
• In Q1 2025, Southeast Asia’s average daily trading volume reached 120 tons.
• In Africa, weak infrastructure led to cross-border delivery times of up to 15 days, adding 2%–3% in hidden costs.

3) Cultural and market fragmentation

India and Vietnam have very different demand patterns

In India, wedding season accounts for 40% of annual gold consumption. But due to rising gold prices, Q2 2025 physical gold purchases fell 12%, and more investors shifted into gold ETFs.

Vietnam is different. Because the real estate market is stagnant, households are putting 30% of savings into gold, creating a “nationwide gold speculation” pattern. However, weak stop-loss discipline means retail investors face significant losses when prices correct.

3. Practical Strategy and Risk Control

1) Regional allocation by market type

Southeast Asia

Use low-tax markets such as Thailand and Singapore for physical gold delivery, paired with Shanghai Gold Exchange Au(T+D) to hedge exchange-rate risk. A suggested allocation is:

• 60% physical gold
• 40% derivatives

This helps diversify risk.

Africa

Investors may consider applying for gold trading licenses in Ghana, with a minimum investment of 5,000 USD. Prefer platforms that cooperate with local refiners to reduce cross-border logistics risk.

2) Use of technical tools

Dual stop-loss strategy

Because emerging markets are highly volatile, a dual stop-loss strategy is recommended:

• A price stop-loss, such as 5% of principal
• A platform “trading blackout window” to avoid high-slippage periods, especially 2:00–4:00 a.m. when silver slippage probability can reach 28%

Cost calculator

Use the Shanghai Gold Exchange “cost calculator” to compare explicit costs across trading modes in real time. For example:

• Gold ETF annual cost on 100,000 RMB principal: about 200 RMB
• High-frequency futures trading cost: potentially over 600 RMB

3) Improve policy sensitivity

Watch India’s gold monetization program and Indonesia’s digital gold wallet pilot, both of which could improve physical gold liquidity.

At the same time, be alert to compliance costs under new regulations. China’s AML rules, for example, may freeze funds for 3–5 business days.

4. Key Variables in 2025

• FX volatility: The Indian rupee depreciated 8% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, raising gold import costs by 12%. Dollar-denominated products can help hedge this risk.
• Geopolitical risk: Escalation in the Middle East could push gold above 3,200 USD/oz, but weak infrastructure in emerging markets may widen premiums by 5%–8%.
• Technology substitution: “Silver-free” solar paste technology could reduce industrial silver demand by 15%. Investors should monitor this closely and adjust allocations dynamically.

Conclusion

In 2025, precious metals trading in emerging markets offers strong structural growth potential, but it also comes with regulatory, liquidity, and cultural challenges.

By building strategies around policy direction and industrial demand, investors may achieve annual returns 5%–7% higher than in mature markets, but they must accept higher volatility.

For beginners, the recommended path is to start with simulation trading to learn platform rules, then gradually move into live trading.