"96.4% Rate Cut Probability Confirms Policy Direction, Middle East Security Restructuring Triggers Safe-Haven Buying"
[Market Focus Analysis]
1. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September remains at 96.4%, with markets highly focused on policy detail adjustments. The Fed is expected to remove the description of "temporarily high inflation," and the dot plot may indicate cumulative rate cuts of 50-75 basis points by 2026. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August (a four-year high), combined with inflationary pressures from tariff policies, creating a combination of "recession risk + persistent inflation" that confirms a cautious easing path. Foreign central banks are increasing gold holdings while reducing US Treasury holdings, further strengthening gold's strategic value.
2. Middle East geopolitical tensions are triggering security system restructuring: Israel conducted airstrikes on six Arab regions within 72 hours, while Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince led a delegation to Doha to coordinate positions. Arab countries are accelerating the formation of a 20,000-strong rapid response force. The failure of the US Al Udeid Air Base to intercept the attacks has caused trust from Gulf nations to fall to a historic low of 27%, triggering "de-dollarization" actions: Saudi Arabia and Qatar are accelerating purchases of Chinese and Russian air defense systems, and Qatar will host a special Arab-Islamic summit to review countermeasures. The World Gold Council points out that gold's safe-haven premium typically increases by 12-15% during periods of security architecture restructuring.
Three driving forces are opening a new valuation phase: policy certainty + escalating geopolitical risks + rising inflation expectations together are pushing gold to break out of its trading range. Short-term trading can focus on breakout opportunities in the $3680-3700 range, while long-term allocations should anchor on the Middle East's "de-dollarization" and monetary system restructuring process. Increased volatility will become the norm, making risk control and flexibility key.
[Gold and Silver Technical Layout]
Gold
Daily chart: Price broke through $3680.24 to reach new highs, deviating from moving averages but maintaining bullish structure
Hourly: Moving upward along moving averages with strong trend momentum
Operation: Buy on dips near $3660.00 (15-minute timeframe) when stabilized, take profit at $3700.00, stop loss at $3650.00
Silver
Daily chart: Consolidating at high levels above $42.650, maintaining bullish trend
Hourly: Trading above moving averages with effective support
Operation: Buy near $42.300, take profit at $42.900, stop loss at $42.000
Risk warning: Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.