I. Key Market Factors
US inflation data for August mostly met expectations (0.4% monthly increase, 2.9% yearly increase). However, last week's new unemployment claims jumped by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. The weakening job market is now affecting economic growth, raising expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates, which makes gold more attractive.
Most market experts expect the Fed to cut rates by 0.25% on September 17th, and investors have already priced in three rate cuts for this year. If the Fed does cut rates, it will make gold more appealing since it doesn't pay interest like savings accounts do.
Political tensions are increasing around the world. The US has imposed new sanctions on Russia, Poland shot down a Russian drone, and Israel attacked targets in Qatar. These events are making investors nervous and driving them toward safe assets like gold.
Central banks worldwide continue to buy more gold. China's central bank has been adding to its gold reserves for 10 straight months (reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August), and global central banks have been net buyers for 14 consecutive quarters. This shows concerns about the US dollar and provides strong support for gold prices.
II. Gold Trading Plan
During Asian trading hours, gold fell below the 3637.00 support level, reaching as low as 3627.00. It's now trading around 3642.00. The 15-minute chart shows prices moving sideways.
Trading suggestions:
- Buy if price rises above 3647.50
- Sell if price drops below 3626.00
- Set stop loss and take profit at 8.00 USD
III. Silver Trading Plan
Silver continues trading in a limited range, currently around 42.235. The 15-minute chart shows sideways movement.
Trading suggestions:
- Buy if price rises above 42.470
- Sell if price drops below 41.990
- Set stop loss and take profit at 0.200 USD
Important Risk Notice: Trading involves unpredictable risks, including possible loss of your initial investment. This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions based on their risk tolerance and understanding of the markets.