1. Gold — main drivers

Macro fundamentals

- The US economy is slowing. GDP growth for the first half of 2025 fell to 1.2%, noticeably weaker than in 2024.

- The labor market is also weakening. July job openings fell to 7.181 million, and average monthly job gains over the past three months are only about 35,000. Slower economic momentum lifts safe‑haven demand and supports gold.

- Fed policy is turning dovish. Powell hinted at a possible September rate cut at Jackson Hole, and other officials have echoed dovish views. The market at one point priced an 87.4% chance of a 25 bp cut in September. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase its appeal.

- Inflation is moderately rising: July PCE +0.2% month‑on‑month (annualized ~2.6%); core PCE year‑on‑year +2.9%. The mix of mild inflation and easier policy strengthens gold’s value as an inflation hedge.

2. Gold — technical plan

- During the Asian session gold was in a consolidation phase and is currently around 3548.50 USD/oz. The 15‑minute chart shows price at a key decision point.

Trading suggestions:

- Bull breakout: Buy after a clear break above 3561.50 (follow the breakout).

- Bear breakout: Short if price falls below 3534.50 (follow the breakdown).

- Use unified stop loss / take profit distance: $10.00.

3. Silver — technical plan

- Silver showed strength in the Asian session and has broken the key 40.800 resistance. Current price about 40.840. The 15‑minute moving averages are bullish and short‑term momentum is to the upside.

Trading suggestions:

- Enter long now at 40.840.

- Stop loss: place below the 40.690 support.

- Target: aim for the 41.010 resistance area.

Risk warning

Markets carry unpredictable risks, including the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.