Market focus

1) NFP plunge sharpens Fed cut expectations

- US August nonfarm payrolls +22k (consensus 75k); June revised to -13k. Unemployment rose to 4.3% (highest since Nov 2021). Involuntary unemployment ratio 47.1%, signaling a shift from “softening demand” to “material risk” in the jobs market.

- Wage dynamics remain sticky: private-sector average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m, manufacturing +0.4%, utilities +1.2% — inflation-wage spiral risk persists. Market-implied probability of a 25bp cut in September >90%; 50bp odds ~11%. Even more hawkish officials (穆薩萊姆) acknowledged increased downside risks to employment.

2) Russia accelerates Far East resource push, shifting long-term supply

- Putin announced a 20 trillion ruble Far East investment plan focused on minerals. Over the past decade coal and gold output rose 1.7x; large-scale commissioning of major gold/copper and rare-earth projects is planned, aiming to secure high-tech resource advantages.

3) Trade fragmentation intensifies, inflation blowback risk rises

- US July trade deficit surged 32.5% to $78.3bn (imports +5.9%, exports +0.3%). Policy shifts have triggered retaliatory measures (EU tariffs on spirits/motorcycles, Canada’s power threats, Chinese semiconductor/rare-earth controls). Global trade rules are entering a disordered reconfiguration phase.

Gold & silver technical plan

Gold

- Daily: strong bullish candle closed at 3586.58, above moving averages — overall bullish.

- Hourly: after breaking the mid-range structure the uptrend continued; short-term high-level consolidation and accumulation.

- Trade suggestion: on the 15-minute timeframe, buy the dip near 3570, take profit 3620, stop loss 3570.

Silver

- Daily: small bullish candle with long upper shadow at 40.97 — short-term momentum somewhat exhausted and needs consolidation.

- Hourly: high-level moving-average guidance weakened; price holding roughly in the 40.00–41.00 band.

- Trade suggestion: on the 15-minute timeframe, buy on a stable pullback near 40.30, take profit 41.40, stop loss 40.30.

Risk note

Volatility may increase after NFP; technical pullbacks are possible. Strict risk control is required; avoid chasing moves. This analysis explains the logic only and is not investment advice.

Practical flag: the suggested stop losses for both gold and silver equal the entry levels (3570 and 40.30 respectively), which would leave no room for risk management. Consider placing stops below the entry (e.g., a few ticks/points lower) consistent with your risk tolerance.