[Market Focus Analysis]

1. Fed internal split heats up, stagflation-like pattern creates policy dilemma

Although CME FedWatch shows a 99% chance of a 25 bp cut in September, August core CPI was 3.2% year-on-year (0.3% month-on-month), above expectations. The housing index rose 0.5% month-on-month and was the main driver, creating a "weak employment + stubborn inflation" stagflation-like pattern.

Policy camps are clearly split:

Hawks: Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon opposes rushing to cut rates; the Cleveland Fed president said "no reason to cut this month."

Doves: Standard Chartered raised its expectation for a September cut to 50 bp; Barclays expects three cuts this year.

Long and short funds are fighting hard. COMEX gold open interest rose by 3,287 contracts to 415,370 contracts. Gold is being contested around $3,640.

2. Policy divergence in Europe and the US increases, geopolitical economic rivalry heats up

ECB policymaker Klaas Knot emphasized that "rates need to be kept for at least two quarters." EUR/USD fell 0.12% to 1.1176, and the dollar index ticked up to 96.05.

The US-Korea-Philippines Subic Bay cooperation project restarted, signaling control over South China Sea shipping routes and boosting short-term safe-haven demand.

Policy divergence and geopolitical rivalry create a special pattern for precious metals: gold's monetary/safe-haven properties are sought after, while silver's industrial properties are under pressure.

3. Polar and tropical geopolitical risks move together, long-term allocation demand stays firm

Denmark protested US secret activities in Greenland (which accounts for about 15% of the world's undeveloped rare earths); Arctic resource competition is intensifying.

At the SCO summit, China-India relations eased, reducing short-term supply chain worries. Meanwhile, the Polish central bank increasing gold reserves to 30% echoes the "de-dollarization" trend, supporting long-term demand for gold allocation.

[Gold and Silver Technical Setup]

Gold

Daily: Price hit a new high at 3659.31, trading away from moving averages but the bullish structure remains intact.

Hourly: Moving up along the moving averages; trend continued after breaking the mid-range.

Trade: Buy on a pullback after it stabilizes on the 15-minute chart. Stop loss 3600.00, take profit 3660.00.

Silver

Daily: Closed at 41.318; bullish trend intact but weaker than gold.

Hourly: High-level oscillation; moving average signals are temporarily not working.

Trade: Buy near 41.000. Stop loss 40.800, take profit 41.600.

Risk warning: Trading markets contain unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.