[Market Focus Analysis]
1. Fed September cut odds rise to 92%; 50bp cut probability 8%
The rise in expectations is driven by recent weak US data: Aug CPI y/y 2.9% (m/m 0.4%), core CPI y/y 3.1% (m/m 0.3%), and initial jobless claims surging to 263k (a near four‑year high). Political moves — including the Trump administration asking an appeals court to rule by Sept 15 on the dismissal of Fed governor Cook — have increased policy uncertainty and further fueled rate‑cut bets.
2. Geopolitical risks intensify over the weekend
A range of events kept risk premia elevated: Trump urged NATO to stop buying Russian oil; the US Secretary of State condemned a Polish airspace incident; and Netanyahu signaled continued operations against Hamas leadership. These developments sustain safe‑haven demand for gold.
3. Global policy developments affect risk appetite
Other policy headlines include Japan’s Shinjiro Koizumi running for LDP leadership, Lesotho requesting tariff relief from the US, a US warship intercepting a Venezuelan fishing vessel, and China‑US economic and trade talks scheduled for Sept 14–17 in Spain (covering tariffs, export controls and TikTok). Such policy interactions indirectly influence precious‑metals flows.
[Gold & Silver Technical Layout]
Gold
- Daily: small bullish candle closed at 3,642.65, holding above moving averages; bullish structure intact.
- Hourly: oscillating within a 3,630–3,660 range, forming a new mid‑range; short‑term directional signal is unclear.
- Trade: On the 15‑minute chart, consider buying on a dip near 3,630.00. Take profit 3,660.00; stop loss 3,630.00.
Silver
- Daily: mid‑sized bullish candle closed at 42.153, with a fresh high at 42.460.
- Hourly: strong momentum after the range breakout; moving averages aligned bullishly.
- Trade: Consider buying near 41.600. Take profit 42.400; stop loss 41.600.
Risk warning: Markets carry unpredictable risks, including loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions aligned with their risk tolerance.