Market focus analysis
1. Federal Reserve policy: At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, in line with a 96% market probability. The dot plot forecasts another 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, and 25 basis points cuts each year in 2026–2027. Powell said the labor market is weakening and that tariff-driven inflation is a one-off effect, stressing Fed independence and a neutral rate path. This signal could cause short-term gold volatility.
2. Middle East geopolitical risk: Israel’s military actions in Gaza continue. The UN Security Council held emergency talks on the Israel-Palestine conflict and international calls for a ceasefire. Rising tensions boost safe-haven demand for gold.
3. Russia-Ukraine and Europe: Ukraine and the EU finished review of the agricultural chapter, advancing Ukraine’s EU path. Poland shot down drones and detained Belarusian nationals, and the UK Royal Air Force carried out air-defense tasks in Poland. Russia accused NATO of involvement in the conflict. These uncertainties add a risk premium to the precious metals market.
Gold and silver technical setup
Gold
- Daily: A medium bearish daily candle closed at 3659.84 USD/oz. Price remains above moving averages and the bullish bias is intact.
- Hourly: Price pulled back to the prior consolidation area. The trading range widened to 3640.00–3690.00, with short-term bias slightly bearish.
- Trades: On the 15-minute chart, buy on stabilization near 3640.00, take profit at 3690.00, stop loss at 3610.00; or sell near 3690.00 if rejected, take profit at 3640.00, stop loss at 3710.00.
Silver
- Daily: A large bearish daily candle closed at 41.666 USD/oz, price is above the 20-day moving average and the uptrend continues.
- Hourly: Price pulled back into the rising consolidation and is now ranging between 41.000 and 42.000.
- Trades: On the 15-minute chart, buy on stabilization near 41.000, take profit at 42.000, stop loss at 40.700; or sell near 42.000 if rejected, take profit at 41.000, stop loss at 42.300.
Risk warning: Markets are unpredictable and may result in loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.