1. Core driver analysis
- Fed rate cut: On September 17 the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%–4.25%, in line with 96% market expectations. The dot plot forecasts another 50 basis points of cuts in 2025, and 25 basis points cuts in each of 2026–2027. Powell stressed policy focus shifting to employment, noted the labor market is cooling, and denied a fast easing cycle. Rate cuts reduce the cost of holding gold, which helps long-term prices, but cautious comments may cause short-term volatility.
- Geopolitical risk: Israel’s ongoing military action in Gaza prompted emergency UN Security Council consultations, worsening Middle East tensions. The Russia–Ukraine conflict has also escalated—Poland shot down Russian drones and the UK has strengthened air-defense support in Poland. Geopolitical uncertainty raises safe-haven demand and supports gold.
- Macro support: Global growth uncertainty continues, and central banks are still buying gold (People’s Bank of China holdings at the end of August were 74.02 million ounces, the 10th consecutive monthly increase). The dollar index is steady at 97.80, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 4.05%. Lower interest rates increase gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.
2. Gold technical layout and strategy
- Price action: Yesterday gold swung widely after the Fed decision, with a high of 3707.59 USD/oz and a low of 3660.50 USD/oz. It now trades near 3670.50 USD/oz. The 4-hour chart shows the two moving averages in bullish order, so the trend is upward, but short-term price has entered sideways consolidation.
- Trade suggestions:
- After a break above 3668.00, follow with long positions; target 3740.00, stop loss 3624.00.
- After a break below 3624.00, reverse to short; target 3600.00, stop loss 3668.00.
3. Silver technical layout and strategy
- Price action: Silver also swung widely yesterday, with a high of 42.562 USD/oz and a low of 41.666 USD/oz. It now trades near 41.820 USD/oz. The 4-hour chart shows moving averages in bullish order, but short-term consolidation is in place.
- Trade suggestions:
- After a break above 42.250, follow with long positions; target 43.800, stop loss 41.070.
- After a break below 41.070, reverse to short; target 40.500, stop loss 42.250.
Risk warning: Markets are unpredictable and can lead to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.