Market focus

1. The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook cuts global growth forecasts, citing trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and emerging market financial vulnerabilities. The report deepens market concerns about the outlook, lowering risk appetite and driving funds into safe-haven assets.

2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent warned that debt-ceiling measures could be exhausted in August and urged Congress to raise the limit before mid-July. Bipartisan talks are slow; failure to resolve it in time could risk a government default and pose a major threat to global financial markets.

3. Israel's military operations in Gaza continue, causing heavy casualties and infrastructure damage. The UN Security Council held emergency closed-door consultations amid rising international calls for a ceasefire. Escalation threatens Middle East stability and could disrupt regional energy supplies, increasing oil price volatility and impacting global inflation and growth.

Gold and silver technical notes

Gold

- Daily: bullish candle closed at 3685.12, a new phase high; bullish structure intact.

- Hourly: price near the upper edge of a large trading range; bullish momentum strong.

- Trading suggestion: sell high/buy low in the 3650.00–3710.00 range; use a stop-loss on a breakout.

Silver

- Daily: strong bullish candle closed at 43.037, showing catch-up gains; bullish trend continues.

- Hourly: remains strong after breaking the previous high.

- Trading suggestion: buy near 42.500; take profit at 43.300; stop loss at 42.500.

Risk warning: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.