Core Drivers

On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, in line with expectations. This lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and raises its appeal as a non-yielding asset.

The Fed forecasts another 50 basis-point cut in 2025 and plans to stay on a loose monetary path for several years. A long-term low interest rate environment supports gold prices. Chair Jerome Powell’s shift in focus from inflation to employment also strengthens easing expectations.

Powell emphasized that this rate cut is a risk management decision and that there is no need for rapid rate adjustments. His cautious tone may limit gold’s short-term upside. Still, mixed factors aside, gold’s safe-haven demand remains solid.

Gold Technical Strategy

After a period of sideways movement, gold fell sharply and is now trading near 3741.60. The four-hour moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, suggesting a higher probability of gains over the medium to long term.

Trading plan:

• Buy near the 3707.50 support level

• Place stop loss below 3680.00

• Target near 3775.00

Silver Technical Strategy

Silver is holding a range and is currently around 43.920. The one-hour chart shows a clear consolidation pattern.

Trading plan:

• Go long on a break above 44.480

• Go short on a break below 43.600

• Use a uniform stop loss and take profit of 0.250

Risk Reminder

Trading carries unpredictable risks, including the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions based on their risk tolerance.