Market Review
Spot gold is currently trading around 3745.00 USD per ounce, maintaining a strong pattern overnight boosted by Powell's dovish speech. The Fed Chair's remarks open space for subsequent rate cuts, supporting gold prices at high levels.
Driving Analysis
Fed Chair Powell stated in his Providence Chamber of Commerce speech that even after last week's rate cut, the monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," leaving room for further cuts this year. He positioned the cut as a "risk management" measure, prioritizing the softening labor market over the summer. Powell described the US economy as "moderately growing," with first-half GDP growth at about 1.50%, significantly slower than 2024's 2.50%, mainly due to weak consumer spending and housing market.
On the labor market, Powell noted that it has softened this summer, with job growth slowing to about 29,000 new positions per month, far below 2024 levels, unemployment rising to 4.30%, and hiring rates at extremely low levels. For inflation, Powell expects August PCE inflation at 2.70% and core PCE at 2.30%, expressing cautious optimism.
Technical Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows gold prices maintaining strong oscillations near historical highs. Key support is at 3730.00 USD per ounce; if held, it could test upwards to 3750.00. The moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, the MACD is running above the zero line, the RSI is consolidating in a strong area, indicating the bullish pattern remains intact. The Bollinger Bands continue to expand upwards, with the price running along the upper band, showing a strong upward trend.
Trading Strategy Reference
Spot Gold
Long opportunity: Buy on pullback to 3730.00 if it stabilizes, target 3750.00.
Spot Silver
Long opportunity: Buy on pullback to 43.000 if it stabilizes, target 43.500.
Risk Warning
Any investment involves risks, including the risk of capital loss. This suggestion does not constitute specific investment advice; investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions.