I. Core Drive Analysis
On September 18th morning, the Fed announced its first rate cut for 2025 as expected, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. This is the Fed's first rate cut since December 2024, after a 9-month interval. Fed Chair Powell then held a press conference.
Fed policymakers' forecasts show another 50 basis points cut in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027. This forward guidance suggests a path of ongoing monetary policy easing, with a long-term low-interest environment overall benefiting gold.
In Powell's press conference, he indicated the Fed is shifting its policy focus from inflation to employment, stating that Fed policy has focused on inflation but is now moving toward a more neutral direction, as the US labor market is cooling, and it's time to consider this in policy-making.
However, Powell also stated that today's rate cut is a risk management decision, with no need for rapid rate adjustments, meaning the Fed will not enter a sustained easing cycle. This cautious stance may limit gold's gains from the rate cut to some extent.
II. Gold Technical Layout Strategy
Gold price showed a one-sided upward trend in the Asia morning session, currently quoted around 3740.00 USD per ounce, with the 15M cycle double moving averages in a bullish trend arrangement, indicating a higher probability of continued price rises in the short term.
Operation Suggestion:
Open long positions when pulling back to the lower support level near 3736.00.
Stop loss: Lower low support at 3716.00.
Take profit: Upper channel upper track at 3766.00.
III. Spot Silver Technical Analysis
Silver showed a one-sided upward trend in the Asia morning session, currently priced around 43.880, with the 15M cycle double moving averages in a bullish trend arrangement, indicating a higher probability of continued price rises afterward.
Operation Suggestion:
Open long positions when pulling back to the lower support level near 43.800.
Stop loss: Lower low support at 43.320.
Take profit: Upper track resistance at 44.550.
Risk Warning: Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.