First: Market Focus Analysis
1. The US second-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate final value came in at 2.6% (expected 2.5%), revised up from the previous 2.5%. As the Fed's preferred inflation metric, this upside surprise strengthens concerns about "inflation stickiness," even though it's down from last year's peak, still leaving it short of the 2% policy target. Following the data release, market expectations for rate cuts have adjusted: the probability of a 25 basis points cut in October has dipped from 89.8% to 85.2%, and the chance of a cumulative 50 basis points cut in December has fallen from 75.3% to 68.9%. Combined with the economy's "contradictory features" (resilient retail + weak employment), this further complicates the Fed's policy balancing act.
2. The Fed's hawkish stance is marginally strengthening. Fed Chair Powell has consistently emphasized the need for "sustained efforts to restore price stability," warning against "premature policy easing." Within the hawkish camp, Atlanta Fed President Bostic has explicitly opposed a October rate cut, while St. Louis Fed President Musalem characterized last month's cut as a "precautionary measure." The core PCE data may weaken the dovish arguments (such as those from Governor Mester advocating for another 125 basis points cut this year). Economic data leading up to the October FOMC meeting will be a critical anchor.
Secondly: Gold Technical Layout
Daily level: A doji bullish candlestick closed at 3749.10, with high-level oscillation digesting gains, and the bullish structure intact.
Hourly level: Price is oscillating within a range, with support at 3720.00 and resistance at 3760.00.
Operation suggestion: Buy near 3720.00 on a 15-minute pullback, with stop-loss at 3700.00 and take-profit at 3760.00.
Thirdly: Silver Technical Layout
Daily level: A strong bullish candlestick closed at 45.166, with consecutive new highs up to 45.219, and robust upward momentum.
Hourly level: After the breakout, a new pivot is forming, with short-term support at 44.500.
Operation suggestion: Buy near 44.500, with stop-loss at 44.000 and take-profit at 45.300.
Risk Warning: Trading markets have unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions based on their personal risk tolerance.