【Market Focus Analysis】

1. The follow-up impact of the Federal Reserve’s "hawkish rate cut" in October persists. Fed Chair Powell’s statement that "a December rate cut is far from a done deal" has reshaped market expectations. Swap contracts show that the probability of another rate cut in December has plummeted from 74% to 48%, and the USD bull ETF attracted $320 million in a single day. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.089%, while the 2s10s yield curve steepened by 5 basis points, increasing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals. However, the medium- to long-term foundation for loose liquidity remains unchanged: the end of balance sheet reduction will ease money market tensions. Global central banks’ net gold purchases in the third quarter increased by 28% quarter-on-quarter, with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increasing its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months.
2. The U.S. Dollar Index surged 0.6% to 105.8, a new 8-week high. EUR/USD fell below 1.08, and USD/JPY depreciated past 151. Despite the strong dollar, gold rose instead of falling, as safe-haven buying and bottom-fishing funds partially offset the pressure from the dollar. The China-U.S. trade truce has suppressed gold’s safe-haven demand, but silver has benefited from expectations of a trade recovery due to its industrial demand. Shanghai Silver inventories increased by 3.32% to 225,900 metric tons, limiting silver’s upside.
3. Geopolitical uncertainty has preserved a safe-haven premium for gold. The U.S. Department of Defense approved the provision of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, and the summit between Trump and Putin was canceled. Global geopolitical tensions have not eased, serving as a key support for gold’s countertrend rebound. The pattern of "sustained suppression from trade easing and intermittent support from geopolitical risks" has left gold with volatile characteristics of "limited pullbacks and weak rebounds."

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: The price is near 3,983.35, below the moving average but with an upward slope, suggesting potential volatility in the market.
• Hourly Chart Level: Trading near the upper edge of the oscillating range; focus on resistance around 4,050.00.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 4,000.00, with a stop-loss at 3,997.00 and a take-profit at 4,050.00.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: The price is at 48.481, below the moving average but close to it, indicating possible market volatility.
• Hourly Chart Level: Trending upward, with the moving average providing support.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 48.700, with a stop-loss at 48.700 and a take-profit at 49.300.

Risk Warning

All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.