【Market Focus Analysis】

Intensive statements from Federal Reserve officials have caused confusion over the policy path, with sharp opposition between hawkish and dovish stances. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester explicitly opposed recent interest rate cuts, emphasizing the sticky risks of core services inflation and wage growth; in contrast, Fed Governor Christopher Waller called for gradual rate cuts.

This policy division confirms Fed Chair Powell’s statement that "a December rate cut is far from a certainty," leading to a rapid adjustment in market expectations: the probability of a December rate cut plummeted from 80% to 55%. The U.S. Dollar Index broke through the 104 mark, and U.S. Treasury yields remained at high levels, significantly increasing the cost of holding gold.

No new substantive disruptions emerged in geopolitics or trade, leading to a continuous contraction in demand for gold as a safe-haven allocation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict maintained its existing pattern, and the situation in the Middle East did not escalate further—developments that have already been fully priced in by the market.

Expectations of a de-escalation in the China-U.S. tariff deadlock persisted, with capital more inclined to flow into risk assets such as U.S. stocks, diverting funds originally allocated to precious metals. The residual impact of the government shutdown has been digested by the market and can hardly be converted into substantive buying support.

The release of key U.S. economic data has been affected by the government shutdown, leaving the market in a "data vacuum." Critical indicators such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI have been delayed, making it difficult for investors to assess the economic fundamentals—they can only infer indirectly through officials’ speeches. Information asymmetry has led to cautious capital sentiment, and the precious metals market has shown a volatile pattern characterized by "low volatility and low trading volume."

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: A bullish doji candlestick closed at 4,001.26, trading below the moving average, with a short-term bearish bias.
• Hourly Chart Level: Oscillating at the pullback bottom, awaiting range breakout signals.
• Trading Recommendation: Adopt a wait-and-see approach on the 15-minute timeframe within the 3,980.00-4,020.00 range; follow the trend after a breakout.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: A small bearish candlestick closed at 48.070, trading below the moving average, with short-term bearish momentum.
• Hourly Chart Level: In a pullback phase, with moving averages in a bearish alignment.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider short positions on rallies around 48.300, with a stop-loss at 48.600 and a take-profit at 47.300.

Risk Warning

All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.