【Market Focus Analysis】

1. The U.S. political arena has fallen into dual chaos. The federal government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the U.S. Senate has failed to pass a temporary appropriations bill after 13 votes. The political deadlock has led to the suspension of the release of key data such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI, weakening the basis for the Federal Reserve’s decision-making. In addition, the Supreme Court is about to hear the case on the legality of Trump’s tariff policy, and Treasury Secretary Yellen (Note: The original text mentions "貝森特" which may be a transliteration error; the U.S. Treasury Secretary during the relevant context is typically referred to as Janet Yellen, so it is corrected here) stated that she will defend the policy at the Supreme Court. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have warned that global stock markets may face a 10%-20% correction, prompting safe-haven funds to flow into precious metals at an accelerated pace. The domestic precious metals sector index rose by 1.66% in a single day.
2. The overall decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the U.S. Dollar Index form a contradictory combination. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, and the 2-year yield dropped by 2.87 basis points to 3.576%. The decline in long-term interest rates has reduced the cost of holding precious metals. The yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) also fell by 1.76 basis points, strengthening expectations of a decline in real interest rates. The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.34% to 100.21, but faced strong resistance at the 100.50 level. London gold rose by 0.99% against the trend amid the U.S. dollar’s strength, indicating that the scale of safe-haven buying has exceeded the selling pressure caused by the U.S. dollar’s appreciation.
3. The divergent policy paths of major global central banks provide support for precious metals. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.6% and warned that core inflation will remain above the upper limit of the target range until mid-2026, triggering concerns about stagflation. The Japanese Prime Minister emphasized that sustainable inflation has not yet been achieved, suppressing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer signaled tax increases, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England rose to 62%. The global pattern of "mixed tight and loose policies" highlights the allocation value of precious metals.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: The price has rebounded to 3,987.13, trading below the moving average but with an upward slope, suggesting potential fluctuations.
• Hourly Chart Level: The price has broken above the moving average, the downward phase has ended, and rebound momentum continues.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 3,970.00, with a stop-loss at 3,960.00 and a take-profit at 4,012.00.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: The price has rebounded to around 47.155, trading below the moving average but approaching support.
• Hourly Chart Level: The downward phase has ended, the price is trading above the moving average, and the short-term trend is bullish.
• Trading Recommendation: Consider buying on dips around 47.500, with a stop-loss at 47.500 and a take-profit at 48.340.

Risk Warning

All investments involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. This recommendation does not constitute specific investment advice. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance, investment objectives, and market conditions.