【Market Focus Analysis】

1. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan made a clear statement advocating for a continued interest rate cut in December, arguing that it "will still be a reasonable move." He emphasized that although the government shutdown has led to a lack of data, inflation is lower than expected and the job market remains stable, so monetary policy should return to a "neutral level" as soon as possible. This statement reversed the market’s pessimistic expectations, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 40% to 52%. The news that the Federal Reserve will end its quantitative tightening policy on December 1 further strengthened expectations of monetary easing, slowing the upward trend of U.S. Treasury yields and marginally weakening the suppressive effect of interest rates.
2. Multiple signals of escalation have emerged in the global geopolitical landscape. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Ukrainian special forces launched a counteroffensive in the direction of Pokrovsk, recapturing the northern part of the industrial zone and carrying out large-scale air strikes on 5 substations in Luhansk Oblast. The United Kingdom has provided additional Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine and transferred all 99 155mm self-propelled howitzers. U.S. sanctions on Rosneft have affected 45% of Russia’s oil exports to Asia. Regarding the Middle East situation: the standoff between Israel and Hamas continues, with the Israeli military surrounding 200 Hamas militants in Rafah, and the situation is at risk of escalation.
3. The U.S. Supreme Court has begun hearing Trump’s tariff case, and the outcome of the case may affect the direction of U.S. trade policy. Despite the lack of latest official data, Milan’s remarks confirmed the stability of the job market and the downward trend of inflation, leading to a slight rebound in market expectations of a "soft landing." However, concerns about uncertainty during the data vacuum period still exist, providing a basis for volatility in precious metals.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: A small bullish candlestick closed at 3,979.04, trading below the moving average, with a short-term bearish bias.
• Hourly Chart Level: Oscillating at the pullback bottom, awaiting signals of a range breakout.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the 3,900.00-4,050.00 range; set stop-loss if the range is broken.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: A small bullish candlestick closed at 47.997, trading below the moving average, with signs of a secondary decline still present.
• Hourly Chart Level: Oscillating within a range, lacking a clear direction.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the 46.800-48.900 range; set stop-loss if the range is broken.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.