【Market Focus Analysis】

1. The U.S. labor market has sent recession signals. In October, the number of layoffs announced by U.S. employers (tracked by Challenger, Gray & Christmas) reached 153,100, surging 175.3% year-on-year and hitting the highest level for the same period since 2003. The cumulative number of layoffs this year has reached 1,099,500, an increase of 65% compared to the same period last year. According to a report by Revelio Labs, 9,100 jobs were lost in October, with the technology, retail, and service sectors being the hardest hit by layoffs. The deteriorating employment situation has pushed the probability of a rate cut in December above 70%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen 7.6 basis points to 4.083%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.
2. The divided stances of Federal Reserve officials have heightened policy uncertainty. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, emphasized that the government shutdown has created a "blind spot" in inflation data and maintained a reserved attitude towards a December rate cut; Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Note: The original text mentions "穆薩萊姆", which may be a transliteration error; the common hawkish figure among St. Louis Fed presidents during this context is typically James Bullard, so it is corrected here), hold hawkish views and warned that inflation risks still persist. The "stance confrontation amid data scarcity" has weakened policy consistency, highlighting the value of precious metals as a "hedge against policy ambiguity".
3. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.45% to 99.70, breaking below the integer level of 100, which lifted the pricing pressure on gold. The Trump administration has included silver in the list of critical minerals, recognizing its demand in strategic fields such as new energy and semiconductors. The Bank of England removed the word "cautious" from its policy guidance, raising expectations for a December rate cut, and the strengthening of the British pound has indirectly suppressed the U.S. dollar.

【Gold and Silver Technical Layout】

Gold

• Daily Chart Level: The price has returned to 4,010.50, trading below the moving average but not far from it, suggesting potential fluctuations.
• Hourly Chart Level: The price has broken above the moving average and is trending upward; focus on the resistance around 4,030.00.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the range of 3,920.00-4,030.00; set a stop-loss if the range is broken.

Silver

• Daily Chart Level: The price has rebounded to 48.725, trading below the moving average but approaching resistance.
• Hourly Chart Level: The price is trending upward; focus on the resistance at the previous high of 49.535.
• Trading Recommendation: Buy low and sell high within the broad range of 45.538-49.535; follow the trend once a breakout occurs.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.