Gold and Silver Rebound from Lows After Hot PPI, Markets Await CPI Guidance

Market Fundamentals Overview

• US August PPI Exceeds Expectations, Raising Rate Hike Odds: The US August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, beating expectations and highlighting sticky inflation. This raised implied odds of a September Fed rate hike to around 70%. Coupled with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.967% (a nearly three-year high) and the US Dollar Index reclaiming the 99 mark, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals surged, sending gold and silver sharply lower overnight.

• Middle East Escalation and Energy Surge Reinforce Monetary Tightening: Expanding geopolitical conflict propelled benchmark energy prices over 7% higher in a single day, with both major international benchmarks crossing $100. Houthi forces took control of Yemen's Port of Mocha and the Hanish Islands, threatening Red Sea transit, while Strait of Hormuz shipments remained constrained. Alongside Saudi August output dropping to its lowest level since 1990, benchmark crude hit four-month highs, stoking persistent inflation concerns and capping bullion's recovery momentum.

• Markets Maintain Cautious Stance Ahead of August CPI: Investors are holding off ahead of tonight's US August CPI print—the final core inflation benchmark prior to the September FOMC meeting. The market consensus anticipates a 3.4% year-over-year headline increase. An upside surprise would solidify rate hike bets and pressure precious metals, while a softer print could ease policy tightening expectations and ignite a broader technical rally.



Gold Technical Analysis

• Daily Timeframe: Spot gold opened at $4,318.05/oz in Asia, hitting an intraday trough of $4,300.77 before rebounding to around $4,354.88/oz (+0.87%). Daily moving averages remain in a golden cross, supporting a broad bullish macro posture. Medium-term long positions opened at 4,472.94 should be maintained despite current floating drawdowns, referencing stop-loss protection below 4,282 and targeting prior swing highs or a 1:2 risk-to-reward exit.

• Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages are converging following a bearish expansion, with prices climbing back above the 20-period MA at 4,333.42. Traders should await confirmed stabilization above 4,350.00 to validate rebound continuation before entering light long positions, placing stops below the intraday low of 4,300.77 and targeting 4,370.00–4,380.00.



Silver Technical Analysis

• Daily Timeframe: Spot silver opened at $63.543/oz, testing a low of $63.027 before recovering to near $64.253/oz (+1.10%). The daily moving average golden cross indicates a shift toward a bullish directional bias. Medium-term longs opened at 66.972 were stopped out; traders should wait for subsequent setups before re-entering.

• Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages have begun converging from bearish alignment, with prices reclaiming the 20-period MA at 63.675. A sustained hold above 64.000 confirms continuation potential for light long entries, referencing stop-loss protection below the 63.027 low and targeting 64.500–64.800.

Risk Disclaimer

Financial markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.