Market Fundamental Analysis

The United States and Iran conducted three hours of indirect discussions during the UN General Assembly in New York, where Iranian officials formalized prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On September 22, Iranian representatives held prolonged exchanges via Qatari mediators with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Tehran's stipulations include a permanent cessation of US military actions against Iran and regional allies, the termination of maritime blockades and sanctions, the restitution of frozen sovereign assets, and indemnification for incurred damages. President Trump confirmed the talks were 'very good' with follow-up meetings planned soon, while keeping open the possibility of a definitive agreement following the November US midterm elections.

International energy benchmarks declined for a fifth consecutive trading session, with WTI crude dropping over 10% since last Tuesday's close and Brent breaching beneath the $95/barrel threshold. While receding energy inflation pressures initially spurred a morning rebound in precious metals, prevailing dollar strength curtailed upside momentum. Concurrently, Saudi Arabia advanced restoration work on its East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz for crude exports within days, mitigating supply outage risks alongside diplomatic exchanges.

Federal Reserve policymakers maintained a firm hawkish stance, with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin cautioning that disinflation will require extended time. Following earlier hawkish remarks from Austan Goolsbee and Alberto Musalem, Barkin highlighted that inflation shocks will not dissipate quickly and elevated prices pose lingering entrenchment risks, though he refrained from explicitly signaling further interest rate increases.



Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Framework: Opening at $4,358.25/oz during today's Asian session, spot gold initially advanced before retreating to record a high of $4,369.34 and a low of $4,318.67, currently changing hands near $4,319.07/oz (-0.89%). Daily moving averages preserve a golden cross configuration with the broader trajectory favoring bulls; price trades between the 20-day and 80-day moving averages, warranting patience for a sustained daily close above the 20-MA before deploying trend-following long positions. The daily trough at $4,318.00 provides immediate support, where a decisive breakdown could trigger deeper retracements.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): Moving averages display a clear bearish alignment, with price consolidating beneath the 15-minute 20-MA at $4,326.95 following a confirmed breakdown. The early morning violation of the 20-MA near $4,329.41 offered an advantageous short entry reference, with risk controlled against the breakdown swing high at $4,343.50, targeting a 2:1 risk-reward objective. With price currently hovering near $4,319.00, corrective pullbacks into the $4,325.00–$4,330.00 resistance band that meet rejection offer continuation short setups, while a recovery above $4,335.00 warrants closing short positions.



Silver Technical Analysis

Daily Framework: Spot silver opened at $66.854/oz today and trended lower, printing an intraday high of $67.513 and a low of $65.362, currently trading near $65.428/oz (-2.38%). Daily moving averages retain a golden cross configuration with a constructive bias; having previously cleared the daily 20-MA, the $66.246 zone serves as an advantageous reference for medium-term long positioning, anchored by stop-losses beneath the cyclical base at $62.300. Given the magnitude of today's decline, traders should monitor whether support holds at the $65.000 psychological milestone.

Intraday Short-Term (15-Minute): The 15-minute moving average structure remains bearish, with price tracking significantly beneath the 20-MA at $65.866. Silver accelerated lower following an early breakdown below the 20-MA to trade near $65.428. Traders should await a corrective mean-reversion retest toward the 20-MA; rejections within the $65.800–$65.900 zone provide short setups with stop-loss orders anchored above the session high of $67.513 and targeting a 2:1 risk-reward ratio. A confirmed reclaim above $66.000 calls for closing short positions and adopting a neutral stance.

Risk Warning

Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to the loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors must conduct independent evaluations and make decisions aligned with their personal risk tolerance.