October 26, 2026 | Analyst: Ma Guobang

Today's Assessment:
The 1-hour technical posture for gold remains tilted to the downside. Tactically, initial attention rests on observing price reaction within the $3,991.86–$3,996.17 resistance band before assessing a potential retest of the session low at $3,978.18.

With RSI approaching the oversold threshold, today's priority is monitoring trend-following short opportunities once rebound momentum stalls.

I. Fundamental Anchors: Mega-Cap Tech Earnings Meet FOMC Week as Tightening Bets Cap Bullion

Global financial markets enter the week focused squarely on big tech earnings reports and the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Reuters reports that the Nasdaq Composite closed marginally lower on Friday following its steepest single-session drop since June, as corporate disclosures from Meta and industry peers fueled fresh skepticism regarding the returns on massive AI capital expenditures.

Upcoming earnings releases this week from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon will continue to test investor confidence in the broader AI investment theme.

On the monetary policy front, persistent pricing for a December rate hike remains a key headwind capping bullion recoveries.

Market-implied probabilities currently assign less than a 10% chance to an immediate hike at the October meeting, but price the likelihood of a December move near 80%.

The FOMC gathers for its scheduled meeting on October 27–28 in Washington; should the policy statement and subsequent press commentary reinforce expectations of year-end tightening, non-yielding gold will face ongoing carrying cost pressures.

Today's market action will center on whether bullion can reclaim overhead moving averages to gauge the underlying vigor of any bounce.

II. 1-Hour Technical Structure: Descending Averages Cap Price as RSI Probes Oversold Territory



In morning trade, London gold quoted at $3,980.96 per ounce, down $14.51 or 0.36% from the previous close.

The session opened at $3,998.98, printing an intraday peak of $4,004.19 and a trough of $3,978.18.

Following an earlier period of sideways consolidation, price action broke lower and continues to hover near session lows.

Moving average metrics display a classic bearish alignment:
MA1: $3,991.86
MA20: $3,996.17
MA30: $4,007.57

All three averages slope downward above current market quotes, establishing the $3,991.86–$3,996.17 cluster as the primary resistance hurdle for any recovery attempt.

Should upside momentum extend further, secondary overhead resistance rests at the session high of $4,004.19 and along the descending MA30.



Indicator Panel: RSI trades near the 30 oversold boundary)

Regarding momentum indicators, RSI(14) stands at 30.43, closely probing the standard 30 oversold boundary.

Tactically, allow prices to test overhead moving averages first and wait for renewed selling confirmation before considering short entries, while monitoring buyer responsiveness around $3,978.18.

III. Intraday Trading Execution Plan

Strategy Direction: Look for short entries following confirmed resistance rejection
Focus Zone: $3,991.86—$3,996.17 (Band formed by MA1 and MA20)
Trigger Conditions: Price bounces into the zone, prints a 1-hour candle with an upper wick, and closes back beneath $3,991.86; enter shorts only after a subsequent retest fails to reclaim that level
Target Levels: Initial target near the intraday low of $3,978.18, with further profit management evaluated based on absorption at that level
Stop-Loss Reference: Placed strictly above the swing high of the confirmed rejection structure, verifying risk-reward parameters before entry
Invalidation Condition: A 1-hour close above $4,004.19 that holds on a retest cancels the fade-the-rebound plan

IV. Risk Warning

Earnings volatility and shifting pre-FOMC policy bets can spark sudden technical whipsaws. Execute trades only after hourly closes and retest confirmations occur.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)