I. News Events



Fed Delivers Rate Hike and Signals Further Tightening

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an increase in its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. The updated quarterly economic projections revealed that 16 of the 18 policymakers anticipate at least one more 25 bps hike before the end of the year, with the policy rate projected to reach the 4.00%-4.25% range by the end of 2026 and persist through 2027.

In its policy statement, the Fed omitted previous language attributing high inflation to 'energy price shocks,' indicating that price pressures have become more broad-based.

Chair Warsh Emphasizes Economic Resilience

During the post-meeting press conference, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh characterized the rate hike as the 'right decision.' He noted that a broad spectrum of data, including labor market metrics, indicates the US economy continues to strengthen, featuring resilient domestic spending and robust capital investment.

Warsh emphasized that current broader financial conditions are not restrictive; consequently, the Committee decided to withdraw a degree of policy accommodation to help guide inflation back to the 2% target more timely.



Trump Strongly Advocates for Steep Rate Cuts

In response to the Fed's decision, US President Donald Trump rapidly took to social media to reiterate his longstanding position that US interest rates should be slashed to 1% or lower.

He argued that the US boasts the world's premier credit standing and that massive new investments are flooding the domestic market, urging the Federal Reserve to 'cut rates quickly.'

II. 30-Minute Chart Technical Analysis



As of 13:32, spot gold traded at $4,292.64/oz, up 0.69% ($29.21) intraday, recovering a portion of its earlier losses after bottoming out in the morning session.

Surrounding the FOMC announcement, the market absorbed massive vertical selling pressure, with gold printing consecutive heavy bearish candles that drove price to a localized low of $4,257.52. However, as the bearish news was fully priced in, dip buyers stepped in, steering the price into a steady, choppy recovery.

Analyzing the moving average system, the steep downward slope of the recent plunge has been neutralized by the sideways rebound. The MA1 and MA20 are currently exhibiting tight convergence and flattening out along the price line, while the MA30 below provides dynamic underlying support. Price action is presently consolidating in a narrow band closely tracking the MA20, establishing an interim equilibrium near $4,292.

III. 30-Minute Technical Indicators



On the 30-minute technical dashboard, following the massive plunge and subsequent near-$35 rebound, the overall technical assessment reflects a deadlocked 'Sell' bias (2 Bullish, 6 Neutral, 3 Bearish signals), with core indicators reverting to the neutral consolidation zone:

Core Oscillators Maintain Neutrality:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) prints at 47.90, resting squarely near the unbiased 50 centerline. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI 14) sits at 25.67, Williams %R at -46.91, and the Ultimate Oscillator at 49.36—all navigating explicitly within absolute neutral territory without directional conviction.

Medium-Term Trend Remains Weighed Down by Prior Selloff:
The MACD (12,26) registers at -6.33, remaining submerged in negative territory and retaining a sell signal. The Stochastic Oscillator (9,6) reads 44.78, indicating a bearish lean and suggesting the larger-cycle downward gravitational pull has not been fully negated by the intraday bounce.

Short-Term Momentum Exhibits Signs of Repair:
The StochRSI (14) printed at 65.25 alongside the Rate of Change (ROC) at 0.55; both indicators have flipped bullish, corroborating the short-term capital inflows providing support since the $4,257.52 low.

IV. Conclusion

Overall, energy supply disruptions stemming from Middle East conflicts have kept global energy prices persistently high. This entrenched, energy-driven sticky inflation served as the primary catalyst compelling the Federal Reserve to decisively hike rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range during this meeting. Chair Warsh's hawkish posture on inflation has decisively shattered market expectations for a near-term pause in the central bank's tightening campaign.