I. Gold Slips to $4,159.07, Trapped Beneath Short-Term Moving Averages



On October 13, spot gold traded at $4,159.07 per ounce, down $12.31 or 0.29% intraday.

The session opened at $4,172.87 against a prior close of $4,171.38, logging an intraday high of $4,175.90 and a low of $4,153.47.

On the 1-hour timeframe, MA1 stands at $4,165.67, MA20 at $4,166.61, and MA30 at $4,170.90, with bullion trading below all three lines.

Market focus remains glued to dollar strength and Fed tightening prospects, as geopolitical safe-haven flows failed to halt bullion's retreat.

Spot gold previously touched a one-week high of $4,217.17 on October 12 before pulling back to settle down 0.56% at $4,171.68, while December gold futures fell 0.6% to settle at $4,190.60.

With US government offices and bond markets closed for Columbus Day, attention shifted toward upcoming inflation releases and central bank commentary.

II. Houthi Attacks Escalate as Benchmark Energy Prices Climb



According to US media reports, Yemen's Houthi forces launched missile strikes on Riyadh's international airport on October 10, killing 13 and injuring over 300, followed by subsequent strikes on October 11.

The escalation in Middle East hostilities and rising energy commodity prices have drawn close market attention.

On October 12, the international energy benchmark rose $1.93 or 1.8% to settle at $106.65 per barrel, its highest mark since September 15, while the US benchmark climbed $1.89 or 2.0% to $93.74 per barrel.

Reports of vessel attacks near the Strait of Hormuz exacerbated supply disruption concerns.

Goldman Sachs raised its December energy benchmark forecast to $90 per barrel, estimating a risk premium slightly exceeding $20 per barrel, while Gulf of Mexico producers continued post-hurricane recovery efforts.

III. Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Claims Face Skepticism as Talks Continue



US President Donald Trump previously stated that Russia would supply substantial refined energy products to global markets, claiming an energy infrastructure ceasefire had been reached between Ukraine and Russia.

However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky subsequently stated that Russian airstrikes continued targeting Ukrainian energy facilities overnight.

The Kremlin reiterated that discussions are ongoing and that Russia does not favor a temporary pause, casting doubt on the implementation of the proposed ceasefire.

Media outlets also reported that the European Union approved its largest single sanctions package against Russia, keeping infrastructure security front and center.

IV. US Dollar Hits 18-Month Peak, Intensifying Selling Pressure on Bullion



On October 12, the US Dollar Index climbed 0.37% to close at 102.56 after touching an intraday high of 102.60, its highest level since April 2025.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Market Analyst at American Gold Exchange, noted that with the greenback testing 1.5-year peaks, gold faces noticeable liquidation pressure.

Net-long dollar positioning swelled to roughly $36 billion in the week ending October 7, up from $8.4 billion three weeks prior.

Meanwhile, the euro hovered near a 17-month trough amid scrutiny over French fiscal deficits and European political stability.

Select strategists argue that moderating macro data, easing price pressures, and fully priced-in rate hikes could eventually cap further dollar upside.

V. Hammack Advocates Accelerated Tightening, Spotlight Shifts to CPI and Warsh Speech



Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on October 12 that the Federal Reserve should shift toward restrictive policy 'relatively quickly' to reign in broadening inflation, following last month's first rate hike since 2023.

CME FedWatch data shows markets broadly expecting a pause later this month, but pricing an 87.7% probability of a rate hike in December.

Wyckoff noted that this week's inflation reports are unlikely to show substantial relief, potentially maintaining a bearish drag on bullion.

Investors will closely monitor remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 14, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data on October 15.

These upcoming data prints and official communications will offer pivotal clues regarding the Fed's future interest rate trajectory.