I. Gold Eases 0.37% Intraday, Slipping Below MA20



On October 16, spot gold traded at $4,155.45 per ounce, down $15.60 or 0.37% from the previous close of $4,171.05.

The session opened at $4,169.39, logging an intraday high of $4,172.81 against a low of $4,151.72.

Gold previously bounced following three consecutive down sessions, supported by a softer greenback, retreating Treasury yields, and cautious forward guidance from Federal Reserve policymakers.

On the 1-hour timeframe, MA1 stands at $4,160.69, MA20 at $4,158.75, and MA30 at $4,154.05.

Price action is currently tracking below MA1 and MA20 while holding marginally above MA30, with RSI(14) registering at 53.07.

With quotes returning to a cluster of converging moving averages, downside attention focuses on support near MA30 and the intraday low of $4,151.72, while upside monitoring centers on price reaction near MA20 and MA1.

II. Inflation Prints Firm, Yet Daly and Bowman Express Caution Over Immediate Hikes



According to a Reuters report on October 15, the US September Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded its largest increase in 4.5 years, driven by simultaneous gains across goods and services costs.

Following earlier accelerations in consumer price indices, market participants initially ramped up bets on an October rate hike by the Fed.

However, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman subsequently indicated that an immediate rate hike may not be warranted.

The report cited the CME FedWatch tool showing market-implied odds for an October hike moderating to roughly 29%.

In response to these measured communications, traders recalibrated policy expectations, preventing tightening bets from spiraling higher despite hot inflation prints.

Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, noted that markets had largely discounted the possibility of an above-consensus PPI, adding that fiscal constraints also limit Fed maneuverability given the economic burden of aggressive tightening.

III. US Dollar Retreats from 18-Month Highs Amid AI Debt Concerns



The US Dollar Index retreated 0.5%, pulling back from its recent 18-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a three-week low.

A Reuters report on the same day noted growing market scrutiny over debt burdens and securities liquidations linked to artificial intelligence enterprises, with Treasury bonds drawing safe-haven bids during tech and semiconductor pullbacks.

Juan Perez, Director of Trading at Monex USA, observed that following four weeks of dollar appreciation, geopolitical friction, cautious equity sentiment, and skepticism regarding structural inflation durability have tilted traders toward a softer greenback bias.

IV. Houthis Issue Fresh Warning as Ukraine Resumes Strikes on Russian Energy Assets



According to a Reuters report on October 15, Yemen's Houthi movement renewed warnings that Saudi airspace and airports remain unsafe.

Concurrently, Reuters reported that Ukraine resumed drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure.

President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the energy ceasefire announced previously by Donald Trump was ignored by Russia, prompting Ukraine to abandon compliance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that the strikes failed to inflict critical structural damage.

Meanwhile, policy frictions between Washington and Kyiv regarding intelligence sharing and satellite communication access continue to draw market attention.

V. Markets Turn to Warsh Speech for Policy Signals

Investors will closely monitor remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on October 16 at the IMF Annual Meetings in Bangkok for forward policy guidance.

With the pre-FOMC blackout window approaching, official commentary regarding inflation persistence and rate hike necessity remains paramount.

Following the retreat in the dollar and Treasury yields, market participants are watching whether central bankers maintain their cautious tone while digesting upcoming macro and geopolitical headlines.

A hawkish pivot from policymakers could subject bullion to renewed corrective pressure.

(Compiled and Edited by Lucky Gold Global Limited)