I. Core Driver Analysis

U.S. August CPI data was largely in line with expectations (0.4% month-on-month, 2.9% year-on-year), but initial jobless claims surged by 27,000 to 263,000 last week—hitting a near four-year high. A weak labor market has threatened economic growth, fueling rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and boosting gold’s appeal.

Markets widely anticipate the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and have fully priced in three rate cuts this year. A Fed rate cut would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, driving its price higher.

Geopolitical tensions have escalated: Events including the U.S. imposing the second round of sanctions on Russia, Poland shooting down a Russian drone, and Israel attacking Qatar have triggered market risk aversion, pushing capital into gold.

Global central banks continue to increase gold holdings: China’s central bank has boosted its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months (reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August), and central banks worldwide have been net buyers for 14 straight quarters. This reflects concerns about the U.S. dollar credit system, providing strong support for gold prices.

II. Gold Technical Trading Strategy

Gold has broken above the resistance level of $3,647.50, hitting a high of $3,655.50, and is currently trading around $3,679.50. The 15-minute timeframe shows prices are in a sideways consolidation pattern, awaiting a directional breakout.

Trading Advice:

• Follow with long positions after breaking above $3,686.00.
• Switch to short positions after breaking below $3,674.00.
• Set a uniform stop-loss and take-profit of $8.00.

III. Silver Technical Trading Strategy

Silver has successfully broken above the resistance level of $42.470, hitting a high of $42.670, and is currently trading around $42.620. The 1-hour timeframe shows prices are in a sideways consolidation phase within an uptrend.

Trading Advice:

• Establish long positions near the support level of $42.330 on pullbacks.
• Stop-loss: Below $41.950.
• Take-profit: Around $43.150.

Risk Warning

The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.