【Morning Market Brief】
Driven by the weak U.S. Dollar Index, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and growing expectations of a Fed monetary policy pivot, spot gold hit another all-time high on Monday, touching an intraday peak of $3,685.63 per ounce and finally closing at $3,678.71 per ounce. Gold continues its strong upward trend, with robust bullish sentiment in the market.
【Analysis of Core Influencing Factors】
- Strengthened Monetary Policy Expectations: Markets hold dovish expectations for this week’s Fed rate decision, with rising rate cut probabilities acting as the core driver for gold’s upside.
- Dual Weakness in U.S. Bonds and Dollar: The declining U.S. Dollar Index and falling Treasury yields have significantly reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, attracting sustained inflows of bullish capital.
- Persistent Strong Technical Structure: Prices have repeatedly set new all-time highs, maintaining a bullish structure across both daily and hourly timeframes, with an overall robust trend.
【Morning Trading Strategy Guidelines】
Gold (XAU/USD)
- Trading Range: $3,674.00 - $3,686.00
- Trading Idea: During the Asian session, adopt light-position "buy low and sell high" with quick entries and exits within the range.
- Breakout Strategy:
- If breaking below $3,674.00, it may test support at $3,664.00 and $3,654.00. Consider follow-through short positions with stop-loss set at $3,679.00.
- If breaking above $3,686.00, it may test resistance at $3,696.00 and $3,706.00. Consider follow-through long positions with stop-loss set at $3,681.00.
Silver (XAG/USD)
- Trading Range: $42.460 - $42.740
- Trading Idea: "Buy low and sell high" within the range.
- Breakout Strategy:
- If breaking below $42.460, target downside levels at $42.000 and $41.700. Consider follow-through short positions with stop-loss set at $42.660.
- If breaking above $42.740, target upside levels at $42.800 and $43.300. Consider follow-through long positions with stop-loss set at $42.540.
Risk Warning
The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.