【Market Focus Analysis】
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen: Expectations for a September Fed rate cut have risen to 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a 50-basis-point cut; the probability of cumulative 50-basis-point cuts by October has reached 81.0%. This expectation is supported by weak economic data: August CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year (0.4% month-on-month), core CPI climbed 3.1% year-on-year (0.3% month-on-month), and initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000 (a near four-year high). The data continues to confirm the coexistence of a slowing labor market and sticky inflation.
- Trump Pressures the Fed Again: Trump has renewed pressure on the Fed, demanding that Powell "implement more aggressive rate cuts immediately." Meanwhile, the Department of Justice has asked the appeals court to rule on the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by September 15. These moves inject additional uncertainty into monetary policy and amplify market volatility.
- Positive Progress in China-U.S. Trade Talks: The two sides have reached a basic framework consensus on issues including a TikTok solution and reducing investment barriers, infusing positive impetus into the stable development of economic and trade relations. This has eased global trade tensions to some extent.
【Gold & Silver Technical Layout】
Gold
- Daily Chart: Closes at 3,678.71 with a medium bullish candle, breaking above the previous high—robust bullish structure.
- Hourly Chart: Breaks through the pivot structure; moving averages show a bullish alignment.
- Trading Advice: Buy on dips near $3,660.00 when prices pull back and stabilize on the 15-minute timeframe. Set take-profit at $3,710.00 and stop-loss at $3,650.00.
Silver
- Daily Chart: Closes at 42.664 with a medium bullish candle, hitting consecutive new highs up to 42.731.
- Hourly Chart: The uptrend continues, with effective support from moving averages.
- Trading Advice: Buy on dips near 42.300. Set take-profit at 42.850 and stop-loss at 42.300.
Risk Warning
The trading market carries unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.