I. Core Drivers Analysis
US August CPI data met expectations (0.4% month-on-month, 2.9% year-on-year), but initial jobless claims surged to 263,000 last week, hitting a nearly four-year high. Weakness in the job market threatens economic growth, strengthening expectations for Fed rate cuts and enhancing gold's allocation value.
The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut on September 17 and has digested expectations for three rate cuts this year. The persistent low-interest-rate environment continues to reduce the cost of holding gold, supporting upward price movement.
Geopolitical tensions continue, with the US implementing second-phase sanctions on Russia, Poland shooting down a Russian drone, and Israel attacking Qatar, all driving safe-haven demand.
Global central banks' enthusiasm for gold purchases remains strong, with the People's Bank of China increasing holdings for 10 consecutive months (reaching 74.02 million ounces at the end of August), and central banks worldwide being net purchasers for 14 consecutive quarters, highlighting gold's strategic position.
II. Gold Technical Layout Strategy
During the Asian session, gold prices strongly broke through the $3,686.00 resistance level, reaching the target of $3,694.00 and currently trading around $3,695.50. The 15-minute chart shows dual moving averages in a bullish arrangement, indicating strong momentum.
Trading recommendations:
- Buy near support at $3,685.50
- Stop loss: below $3,674.00
- Target: around $3,705.00
III. Silver Technical Layout Strategy
Silver pulled back during the Asian session before continuing its rise, currently trading around $42.720. The 1-hour chart shows the price in a consolidation phase within an upward trend.
Trading recommendations:
- Buy near support at $42.360
- Stop loss: below $41.960
- Target: around $43.150
Risk warning: Trading markets involve unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.