Market Review

Spot gold surged 0.42% to a new historic high of $3,697.04/oz. The daily trading range was between $3,674.29 and $3,697.04/oz. The US dollar index retreated to around 97.07, providing support for gold prices.

Technical Analysis

The 1-hour chart shows a strong bullish pattern. After an early session pullback to $3,626.00, gold quickly rebounded, indicating solid support below. Moving averages are arranged in a bullish formation, with short-term averages providing effective support. The MACD indicator formed a golden cross above the zero line, with red momentum bars continuing to strengthen, showing abundant bullish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, with prices running along the upper band, indicating an intact upward trend. Key support is at $3,655.00/oz, with upward targets at $3,675.00/oz.

Driver Analysis

Market focus remains centered on the Fed policy meeting. According to the latest pricing, the market anticipates a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, while the chance of a 50-basis-point cut remains at 4-5%. Investors are closely watching the dot plot projections and policy signals from Powell's press conference. Additionally, policy decisions from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan could increase market volatility. Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, particularly Trump's threat of stronger measures against Russia, further boosting safe-haven demand and providing additional support for gold prices.

Trading Strategy Reference

Spot Gold

Long opportunity: Buy on dips near $3,655.00 upon stabilization, target $3,675.00

Spot Silver

Long opportunity: Buy on dips near $42.100 upon stabilization, target $42.400

Risk Warning: Trading involves unpredictable risks, including potential loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their risk tolerance.