1. Main Drivers
- US August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year. These numbers were roughly as expected.
- Initial jobless claims jumped by 27,000 last week to 263,000, the highest in about four years. Weak job data threatens growth and strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts, which makes gold more attractive.
- The market is fully pricing in a 25 basis-point Fed cut on September 17 and has already priced in three cuts for the year. Lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold and support higher gold prices.
- Geopolitical tensions have risen — US secondary sanctions on Russia, Poland shooting down a Russian drone, and Israel striking targets in Qatar — which boosted safe-haven demand and pushed money into gold.
- Global central banks keep buying gold. China’s central bank has increased its holdings for 10 months in a row (about 74.02 million ounces by the end of August). Central banks have been net buyers for 14 consecutive quarters, showing concern about the dollar system and strengthening gold’s strategic role.
2. Gold Technical Strategy
- During the Asian session, gold broke resistance at 3645.00 and reached a high of 3655.00. Price is now around 3648.00.
- The 15-minute moving averages show a bullish setup, so the short-term trend looks strong.
Trading suggestion:
- Buy on a pullback near 3644.00
- Stop loss: below 3630.00
- Target: around 3673.00
3. Silver Technical Strategy
- Silver had a strong one-way rise in the Asian session and is now around 42.180.
- The 15-minute moving averages are bullish, so the outlook is mainly upward.
Trading suggestion:
- Buy on a pullback near 41.760
- Stop loss: below 41.380
- Target: around 42.400
Risk Warning: Trading involves unpredictable risks, including potential loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their risk tolerance.