1. Main drivers

- US jobs data shows a notably weak labor market. Initial jobless claims jumped to 263,000 last week, the highest in about four years.

- August CPI was roughly as expected (0.4% month-on-month, 2.9% year-on-year), but the weaker jobs picture raises concerns about growth and strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts.

- The market is fully pricing a 25 bp Fed cut on September 17 and expects three cuts this year. Lower rates reduce the cost of holding gold and increase its appeal in portfolios.

- Geopolitical risks remain elevated — US secondary sanctions on Russia, Poland shooting down a Russian drone, and Israel striking Qatar — which boost safe-haven demand for gold.

- Global central banks keep buying gold. China’s central bank has increased holdings for 10 months in a row (about 74.02 million ounces at end‑August). Central banks have been net buyers for 14 consecutive quarters, reflecting concerns about the dollar system and reinforcing gold’s strategic role.

2. Gold technical strategy

- Gold traded in a range yesterday and is now around 3635.00. The 15-minute chart shows sideways consolidation, waiting for a directional breakout.

Trading suggestions:

- If price breaks above 3645.00, enter long.

- If price breaks below 3620.00, reverse to short.

- Use a fixed $10 stop loss and take profit.

3. Silver technical strategy

- Silver successfully broke the 41.300 resistance and reached a high near 41.600. It is now around 41.540. The 1-hour moving averages are bullish, so the outlook is skewed to the upside.

Trading suggestions:

- Buy on a pullback near 41.290.

- Stop loss: 40.840

- Target: 42.400

Risk reminder: Trading involves unpredictable risks, including loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and is not direct investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions based on their risk tolerance.