1. Main drivers

- The US economy is still slowing. GDP growth for the first half of 2025 fell to 1.2%. The labor market is under pressure — July job openings dropped more than expected to 7.181 million.

- Weak fundamentals support safe-haven demand, which is positive for gold.

- Expectations for Fed rate cuts remain high. The market once priced the chance of a 25 bp cut in September at about 87.4%. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive by reducing its holding cost.

- Inflation is moderate. July PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and the annualized rate is about 2.6%. Combined with trade-policy-driven inflation expectations, gold’s role as an inflation hedge is supported.

- Geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and regional conflicts continue, keeping uncertainty high and possibly increasing demand for safe assets.

- Market sentiment is still bullish. Gold hit record highs earlier and, despite a technical pullback, the overall uptrend remains intact.

2. Gold technical strategy

- Gold stayed in a range yesterday and is now around 3642.00. The 1-hour moving averages are bullish, so the chance of further upside is higher.

Trading suggestion:

- Wait for a 1-hour candle to close above 3645.00, then go long.

- Entry: around 3645.00

- Stop loss: below 3620.00

- Target: around 3700.00

3. Silver technical strategy

- Silver is also range-bound and is around 41.170. The 4-hour moving averages are bullish, so the outlook is mainly upward.

Trading suggestion:

- Enter long after a break above 41.300

- Stop loss: below 40.930

- Target: around 42.400

Risk reminder: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including possible loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and not direct investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.