1. Key drivers
Economic
- The US economy is slowing. GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was only 1.2%, down from 2.5% a year earlier.
- Private investment and consumer spending are weaker.
- The labor market is under pressure: July job openings fell to 7.181 million, and new hiring slowed to about 35,000 per month. Weak economic and jobs data raise worries and increase safe‑haven demand, which is positive for gold.
Monetary policy
- Expectations for Fed rate cuts keep rising. Powell said at Jackson Hole that job risks are increasing, hinting a September cut is possible. Several Fed officials, including Waller, have sent dovish signals. The market once priced the chance of a 25 bp cut in September at about 87.4%. Lower rates reduce the cost of holding gold and increase its appeal.
Inflation
- July PCE rose 0.2% month‑on‑month, annualized about 2.6%. Core PCE is up about 2.9% year‑on‑year. Moderate inflation, plus tariff‑driven price pressures, make a rate cut more likely and support gold’s role as an inflation hedge.
Geopolitics and trade
- Trump announced a 50% tariff on goods from India, raising global growth concerns.
- The Russia‑Ukraine conflict flared again after Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities.
- Even with some talk of ceasefire, uncertainty remains high and can boost safe‑haven flows into gold.
Market sentiment
- Spot gold once hit a record high at $3,578.38. Some profit taking in early September caused a pullback, but the overall bull trend remains. Concerns about Fed independence and global risks keep safe‑haven demand steady.
2. Gold technical strategy
- Gold kept trading in a range yesterday and is now around 3,631.00. The 1‑hour chart shows sideways movement. Short‑term direction is not yet decided.
Trading suggestions:
- Go long after a break above 3,659.00
Entry: around 3,659.00
Stop loss: below 3,644.00
Target: around 3,674.00
- Go short after a break below 3,619.00
Entry: around 3,619.00
Stop loss: above 3,634.00
Target: around 3,604.00
3. Silver technical strategy
- Silver is range‑bound and currently around 41.050. The 1‑hour chart shows continued sideways action.
Trading suggestions:
- Go long after a break above 41.300
Stop loss: below 41.000
Target: around 41.600
- Go short after a break below 40.880
Stop loss: above 41.180
Target: around 40.580
Risk reminder: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and is not direct investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.