1. Key drivers

- The US economy is still slowing. GDP growth for the first half of 2025 fell to 1.2%. The labor market is under pressure: July job openings dropped to 7.181 million. Weak economic and jobs data increase safe‑haven demand, which supports gold.

- Expectations for Fed rate cuts remain high. The market once priced about an 87.4% chance of a 25 bp cut in September. Lower rates make holding gold cheaper and more attractive.

- Inflation is moderate. July PCE rose 0.2% month‑on‑month, annualized about 2.6%. Trade policy pressures also add to inflation expectations, reinforcing gold’s hedge value.

- Geopolitical risks and trade tensions continue. Ongoing uncertainty can trigger safe‑haven flows into gold.

- Market sentiment is bullish. Gold hit record highs earlier. Although there has been a technical pullback, the overall bull trend remains.

2. Gold technical strategy

- Gold held a range yesterday and is now around 3642.00. The 1‑hour moving averages are bullish, so the chance of more upside is higher.

Trading suggestion:

- Wait for a 1‑hour candle to close above 3645.00, then go long.

Entry: around 3645.00

Stop loss: below 3620.00

Target: around 3700.00

3. Silver technical strategy

- Silver is range‑bound and is around 41.170. The 4‑hour moving averages are bullish, so the outlook is mainly upward.

Trading suggestion:

- Enter long after a break above 41.300.

Stop loss: below 40.930

Target: around 42.400

Risk reminder: Trading involves unpredictable risks, including possible loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and is not direct investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions based on their risk tolerance.