1. Gold — key drivers

- US growth has slowed markedly: GDP rose just 1.2% in H1 2025, down noticeably from 2024.

- Labor market is weakening: July job openings fell to about 7.181 million and three‑month average monthly job gains are only ~35,000. Economic weakness boosts safe‑haven demand and supports gold.

- Fed rate‑cut expectations are firming. Powell has signaled a possible September cut and several Fed officials have been dovish. The market once priced about an 87.4% chance of a 25 bp cut in September. Lower rates reduce gold’s opportunity cost.

- Inflation: July PCE +0.2% m/m, annualized ~2.6%; core PCE y/y ~2.9%. Moderate inflation plus tariff‑driven price pressures strengthen gold’s inflation‑hedge case.

- Geopolitics: US tariffs on Indian goods, ongoing Russia‑Ukraine tensions, etc., increase global uncertainty and elevate gold’s safe‑haven appeal.

- Sentiment: Gold recently hit a record high of $3,578.38. Despite a technical pullback, the bull market remains intact.

2. Gold — technical setup

- Last Friday spot gold cleared resistance at 3,561.50 and reached the first target of 3,571.50. Current price ~3,591.50. On the 15‑minute chart the price is in a new round of sideways consolidation.

Trading suggestions:

- If price breaks above 3,601.00, consider entering long.

- If price breaks below 3,581.00, consider reversing to short.

- Use a unified stop loss / take profit of $10.00.

3. Silver — technical setup

- Silver continued up on Friday but did not break the prior high. Current level ~40.840. The 1‑hour chart shows wide‑range consolidation; direction needs confirmation.

Trading suggestions:

- Go long on a break above 41.470.

- Go short on a break below 40.370.

- Use stop loss / take profit set at $0.200.

Risk reminder: Markets carry unpredictable risks, including possible loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.