1. Gold — core drivers
- US growth is slowing. GDP growth for H1 2025 fell to 1.2%, a notable decline versus 2024.
- The labor market is weakening: July job openings unexpectedly dropped to 7.181 million, and the three‑month average monthly job gain is only about 35,000. Weak economic data lift safe‑haven demand, supporting gold.
- Monetary policy: Fed rate‑cut expectations continue to strengthen. Powell has hinted at a possible September cut and several officials have expressed dovish views. The market once priced about an 87.4% chance of a 25 bp cut in September. A lower‑rate environment increases gold’s appeal.
- Inflation remains moderately elevated: July PCE +0.2% m/m (annualized 2.6%); core PCE y/y +2.9%. Combined with tariff‑driven price pressures, gold’s role as an inflation hedge is reinforced.
- Geopolitics: Ongoing trade frictions and the Russia‑Ukraine conflict keep uncertainty high and underpin gold’s safe‑haven status.
- Sentiment is bullish. Gold hit record highs earlier and, despite a technical pullback, the overall bull market remains intact and safe‑haven demand is steady.
2. Gold — technical trading plan
- During the Asian session gold broke above 3,601.00 resistance, reaching a high near 3,611.00. Current price about 3,607.50. The 1‑hour moving averages are in a bullish alignment and the short‑term trend is biased to the upside.
Trading suggestion:
- Buy on a pullback to the 3,580.00 support area.
- Stop loss: set below 3,558.00.
- Target: around the 3,643.00 resistance zone.
3. Silver — technical trading plan
- Silver stayed in a choppy range during the Asian session and is trading near 41.080. The 1‑hour chart shows wide‑range consolidation; direction needs confirmation.
Trading suggestion:
- Go long on a break above 41.480.
- Reverse to short on a break below 40.350.
- Use a unified stop loss / take profit of $0.20.
Risk reminder: Markets carry unpredictable risks, including possible loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.