[Market Focus Analysis]

1. Dovish Fed comments bombard the market, expectations of a policy shift rise sharply

Dallas Fed President Logan said "if long-term rates stay higher due to a premium, there may be no need for more rate hikes," showing the hawkish camp has softened. San Francisco Fed President Daly noted recent Treasury yield rises are roughly equal to a 25-basis-point hike, and "the need for additional hikes has fallen significantly."

The market priced in the change quickly:

CME FedWatch shows the chance of holding rates unchanged in November jumped to 91.5%.

Expectations for rate cuts this year have topped 70% for the first time. The September FOMC minutes phrase that "all participants agreed to proceed cautiously" echoes officials’ remarks, building a policy mix expectation of "pause on hikes + softer forward guidance."

2. ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points, transatlantic easing creates resonance

The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate to 3.50% and the main refinancing rate to 3.65%. The statement emphasized that "the inflation outlook allows for policy easing" while keeping a flexible "meeting-by-meeting decision" approach—confirming the start of an easing cycle but leaving room for future adjustments.

3. Middle East tensions escalate sharply, safe-haven premium rises significantly

The Israeli Air Force carried out a precision strike on Doha, Qatar, using 15 warplanes and firing 10 missiles, killing five Hamas members. The action broke the usual norm that "the territory of non-hostile countries is inviolate." Qatar summoned the U.S. ambassador to protest, and Yemen’s Houthi forces fired retaliatory missiles at Israel. The risk of regional conflict spilling over has risen sharply.

[Gold and Silver Technical Setup]

Gold

Daily: Price holds above 3600.00; the bullish structure is intact but needs consolidation.

Hourly: Moving through high-level moving averages and building a new mid-range; moving-average guidance is temporarily unclear.

Trade: Follow long on an upward breakout, or buy on a pullback if it stabilizes near 3600.00. Take profit 3660.00, stop loss 3600.00.

Silver

Daily: Price closed near 41.140; the bullish trend continues but momentum has weakened.

Hourly: High-level oscillation; the lower range at 40.800 is a key support.

Trade: Buy near 40.800. Take profit 41.300, stop loss 40.800.

Risk warning: Trading markets contain unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.