[Market Focus Analysis]

1. Geopolitical risks keep brewing, safe-haven demand supports gold

Israel's airstrike on Qatar failed to kill the Hamas leader, and Poland shot down a Russian drone, so tensions remain high. Even though the S&P 500 hit a record 6532.04 (up 0.30%) and the Nasdaq reached 21886.06 (up 0.03%), much of the stock rally was driven by Oracle's AI cloud demand—its share price jumped 36%—and high valuations limit further gains. Gold's rise has outpaced most other asset classes, showing its resilience as a safe haven amid multiple risks.

2. Weak dollar + lower US yields create a favorable macro backdrop for gold

The dollar index rose slightly by 0.08% to 97.83 but is down nearly 10% year-to-date, weighed by US policy turmoil and worries about Fed independence. A federal judge blocked Trump from removing Fed governor Cook, a setback for White House interference. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3.6 basis points to 4.038% (a 5-month low), and the 30-year fell 3.2 basis points to 4.685%. Falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.

[Gold and Silver Technical Setup]

Gold

Daily: Closed at 3640.60 with a small bullish candle and shadow, holding above moving averages; the bullish structure remains intact.

Hourly: Oscillating between moving averages and forming a new mid-range; directional guidance is temporarily unclear.

Trade: On a 15-minute chart, buy on a dip near 3620.00 once it stabilizes. Take profit 3660.00, stop loss 3600.00.

Silver

Daily: Closed at 41.140 with a small bullish candle; the uptrend continues but momentum has weakened.

Hourly: High-level oscillation; support at 40.400 remains effective.

Trade: Buy near 40.800. Take profit 41.350, stop loss 40.400.

Risk warning: Trading markets contain unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.