[Market Focus Analysis]
1. Fed September rate-cut probability soars to 94.5%, market largely pricing in a 25bp move
This view is supported by two data points: July nonfarm payrolls rose only 73k (the smallest increase in about five years), and August core CPI’s month-on-month stickiness at 0.3% persists, reinforcing the pivot narrative. Some Fed officials have even advocated a 50bp cut in September. The market’s “buy the expectation” dynamic has made gold resilient—even if the dollar ticks up, gold remains strong.
2. Focus shifts to Michigan consumer sentiment (Beijing time 22:00)
The initial read is expected at 58.0, slightly below the prior 58.2. More important are inflation expectations: 1‑year expected inflation is forecast to rise to 4.7%, while 5–10 year expectations stay around 3.4%. That mix provides two-sided support for gold—near-term inflationary pressure strengthens hedging demand, while stable long-term expectations ease rate-pressure. Historically, each 0.1 percentage-point rise in this inflation-expectations metric has coincided with an average 0.2% intraday gain in gold.
3. Middle East: “mediation amid lingering risks”
France’s Macron and Lebanon’s former PM Hariri reached preliminary understandings that temporarily ease tensions, but Saudi-led Arab League emergency meetings on Iran, ongoing Israel–Qatar frictions, and Houthi reprisal risks mean geopolitical premium persists. WGC data indicate safe-haven demand typically rises 15–20% during geopolitical uncertainty—an important factor supporting a move toward historic gold highs.
[Gold and Silver Technical Setup]
Gold
Daily: Price is approaching the record high of 3,656.69; bullish structure remains firm.
Hourly: Trading above moving averages; the 3,600.00 round number is strong support.
Trade: On the 15-minute chart, buy on dips near 3,620.00. Take profit 3,660.00, stop loss 3,600.00.
Silver
Daily: Strong breakout above prior high to 42.250; bullish momentum is strong.
Hourly: Trend continuation after mid-range breakout; moving averages in bullish alignment.
Trade: Buy near 41.800. Take profit 42.500, stop loss 41.800.
Risk warning: Markets carry unpredictable risks, including loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions consistent with their risk tolerance.