"Confirmed CPI strengthens rate-cut bets, geopolitics continue to support gold"

Market Focus Analysis

1. US August CPI broadly in line with expectations

Headline CPI (y/y, not seasonally adjusted) recorded 2.9%; core CPI y/y 3.1%; both month-on-month rates were 0.3%. The print reinforces market certainty of a Fed cut in September: the probability of a 25bp cut is priced at 100%, while a 50bp cut probability rose to 10%. The inflation data provide clear grounds for a policy pivot, keeping gold’s role as a policy-hedge prominent.

2. Geopolitical risks continue to simmer

Israel’s airstrike on Qatar has further strained Middle East tensions, and Qatar has announced it will reassess its mediator role. Events in Eastern Europe—such as Poland shooting down a Russian drone—are still unfolding. Rising geopolitical uncertainty is boosting safe-haven demand and driving flows into gold.

3. Weak dollar and lower US yields provide dual support

The dollar index is down about 10% year-to-date to 97.74, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a five-month low at 4.038%. Dollar weakness reduces the cost of holding gold, and falling yields lower the opportunity cost, together creating a favorable macro backdrop for bullion.

Gold and Silver Technical Setup

Gold

- Daily: small bearish candle closed at 3,633.96, holding above moving averages; bullish structure intact.

- Hourly: oscillating between moving averages and forming a new mid-range; directional signals temporarily unclear.

- Trade: On the 15-minute chart, buy on a dip near 3,620.00 once it stabilizes. Take profit 3,660.00, stop loss 3,600.00.

Silver

- Daily: mid-sized bullish candle closed at 41.536; uptrend continues but has not decisively broken the prior high.

- Hourly: high-level oscillation, upper range showing resistance.

- Trade: Buy near 41.300. Take profit 41.800, stop loss 41.300.

Risk warning: Markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to principal loss. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.