Market focus

1. Fed cut odds and mixed signals

- The market puts a 99.6% chance on a September Fed rate cut, so markets are in a calm phase before expectations are realized.

- Attention is on changes in the policy statement and the dot‑plot that will show the Fed’s path for cuts.

- The Trump administration is expanding tariffs on steel and aluminum products and may tax auto parts, which could push inflation up short term while hurting investment confidence.

- US retail sales rose 0.6% month‑on‑month in August (third straight beat), showing consumption resilience. That creates a tension of “tighter policy vs. resilient consumption,” adding uncertainty premium to gold.

- Global gold ETF holdings rose by 12.6 tonnes to 3,742 tonnes (a five‑year high), showing strong institutional demand.

2. Middle East tensions escalate

- Israel’s strikes on Qatar prompted strong reactions from Arab states; Saudi crown prince visited Qatar to discuss forming a rapid reaction force.

- The Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander warned of decisive actions against the US and its allies. Rising tensions have sharply increased safe‑haven demand for gold.

- The impact on metals is mixed: gold benefits from safe‑haven flows, while silver is limited by its industrial demand exposure.

3. Diverging global data affects policy outlook

- US industrial production rose 0.1% in August, showing manufacturing resilience.

- Eurozone economic sentiment rose to 26.1 in September, above expectations.

- Canada’s August CPI was 1.9% year‑on‑year, below expectations and showing easing inflation.

- These mixed data increase policy uncertainty and strengthen gold’s role as a hedge.

Gold and silver technical layout

Gold

- Daily: price pulled back to 3,662.67 but remains above moving averages, so the bullish structure is intact.

- Hourly: price is testing previous consolidation zones and shows short‑term bearish bias.

- Trade approach: stay on the sidelines before the Fed decision. Wait for a clear stabilization around 3,650.00 before taking positions.

Silver

- Daily: sharply down but the broader bullish trend is not broken; support near 41.500.

- Hourly: broke the top range; consolidation has widened and formed a larger trading structure.

- Trade approach: stay flat before the decision and avoid event risk.

Risk warning: Markets are unpredictable and can result in loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.