Market review

Spot gold traded near 3,693.70 USD/oz in the Asian morning. On Tuesday it touched a record high of 3,702.93 USD/oz. As the session progressed, gold pulled back and is now around 3,677.43 USD/oz, down 0.37% from the intraday high, showing profit‑taking pressure near the record level.

Technical analysis

The 1‑hour chart shows a spike up followed by a decline. Price stayed near high levels in the morning but fell after hitting the intraday peak, producing several bearish candles and moving down quickly. Price has broken the key support at 3,680.00 USD/oz and is below the 50‑period MA (3,685.00) and the 20‑period MA (3,680.00). The MA50 is flattening and beginning to turn down, indicating short‑term bullish strength is weakening and a technical correction may be underway. MA50 near 3,685.00 now acts as a key resistance, and MA20 near 3,680.00 is also a pressure level.

Drivers

Market odds for a September Fed rate cut have risen to about 96%. August nonfarm payrolls rose by only 22,000 and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%. These weak data strengthened expectations for easier policy. But ahead of the Fed decision, investors grew cautious and some fear a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reaction — meaning gold could fall after the cut is confirmed. This caution led some bulls to take profits, causing today’s decline.

Trading strategy reference

Spot gold

- Long opportunity: buy if it holds near 3,630.00, target 3,660.00

- Short opportunity: short on a rebound that is capped at 3,680.00, target 3,650.00

- Key note: ahead of the Fed meeting, consider closing positions and waiting

Spot silver

- If silver falls to 42.200 and stabilizes, consider shorting with a target of 41.800

Risk warning: Markets are unpredictable and may result in loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.