Market review

Spot gold showed a choppy downtrend today. It opened in the Asian session at 3,641.99 USD/oz and fell to a low of 3,622.69 USD/oz, then rebounded to 3,648.92 USD/oz in the European session before sliding again. In the US pre‑market it traded around 3,629.75 USD/oz, down 0.28% from yesterday.

Drivers

US August PPI unexpectedly fell, month‑on‑month down 0.1% (expectation +0.3%), year‑on‑year up 2.6% (expectation 3.3%). July data was revised down to 0.7%. Easing inflation pressure has strengthened Fed rate‑cut expectations: the market now fully prices a 25 bp cut in September, while the probability of a 50 bp cut has risen to 10%.

Technical analysis

1. The 1‑hour moving average system shows entanglement, indicating indecision.

2. MA5 (3,632.50) and MA10 (3,630.80) form a recent key pivot zone.

3. Price is currently hovering near the short‑term moving averages, with buyers and sellers roughly balanced.

4. If price holds above MA5, an upside move is possible; a break below MA10 could lead to further downside.

Trading strategy reference

Spot gold

- Long opportunity: buy on a dip to 3,590.00 if it holds, target 3,615.00

- Short opportunity: short on a rebound capped at 3,670.00, target 3,645.00

- Key logic: range trading—sell high, buy low

Spot silver

- Long opportunity: buy on a dip to 40.350 if it holds, target 40.650

- Short opportunity: short on a rebound at 41.450 if it is rejected, target 41.050

- Trading note: silver is more volatile; consider light positions

Risk warning: Markets are unpredictable and may result in loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.