Market review

Spot gold moved in a choppy pattern after the CPI release and is currently trading near 3,615.00 USD/oz. The data matched expectations but showed mixed internal structure, leading to a slight adjustment in Fed rate‑cut expectations.

Drivers

US August CPI rose 0.40% month‑on‑month and 2.90% year‑on‑year, the largest increase since January. Core CPI rose 0.30% month‑on‑month and 3.10% year‑on‑year, both in line with expectations. Key details: the housing index rose 0.40% month‑on‑month, owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.40%, and airfares jumped 5.90%. Meanwhile, entertainment and communication indexes fell 0.10% month‑on‑month. After the release, the market kept the probability of a 25 bp cut in September at 89.10%, while the chance of a 50 bp cut rose from 8% to 10.90%. This suggests the market sees the CPI and a weak labor market as reasons the Fed could cut more aggressively.

Technical analysis

The 4‑hour chart shows gold oscillating above a key support level. Short‑term support is around 3,600.00; if that level holds, price could test 3,620.00. The MACD shows bulls and bears are roughly balanced.

Trading strategy reference

Spot gold

Buy opportunity: buy on a dip to 3,600.00 if it holds, target 3,620.00

Spot silver

Buy opportunity: buy on a dip to 41.000 if it holds, target 41.300

Risk warning: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.