1. Core driver analysis

The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25%, in line with market expectations. This is the first cut since December 2024. The cut theoretically lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is potentially positive for gold prices.

The Fed projects another 50 bp of cuts in 2025 and a continued easing path in the coming years. A long-term low-rate environment is broadly supportive for gold. Powell said the policy focus is shifting from inflation to employment, suggesting more measures to support economic growth and reinforcing easing expectations.

However, Powell also emphasized the cut was a risk-management decision and there is no need to move quickly on rates; this cautious tone may limit near-term upside for gold. With mixed bullish and bearish factors, gold’s safe-haven demand remains intact. Future moves will depend on Fed policy signals and economic data.

2. Gold technical setup strategy

Gold failed to hold above the 4-hour moving average and is moving lower, currently around 3,639.00. The 15-minute chart shows price in a sideways consolidation range.

Trading suggestions:

- Follow up with longs after a break above 3,647.50

- Reverse to shorts after a break below 3,634.00

- Use a uniform $5.00 stop loss and take profit

3. Silver technical setup strategy

Silver failed to hold above the 4-hour moving average and is moving lower, currently around 41.710. The 1-hour chart shows price in a sideways consolidation range.

Trading suggestions:

- Build longs after a break above 42.250

- Reverse to shorts after a break below 41.100

- Use a uniform $0.300 stop loss and take profit

Risk warning: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.