Market focus analysis
1. The Fed has clarified its easing path, expecting another 50 basis points of cuts before year-end and 25 bps each year over the next two years. Powell emphasized a weakening labor market (tariff policy is one contributing factor), defended the Fed's independence, and acknowledged that tariffs pushed up inflation but characterized that as a "one‑off" increase. The policy stance is shifting toward a neutral interest rate and the path is evolving gradually.
2. Geopolitical risk is intensifying: Ukraine and the EU completed the agricultural chapter review, accelerating accession progress; Poland shot down a drone over a government district and detained Belarusian nationals, and the Royal Air Force will deploy to Poland for air‑defense duties; Russia accuses NATO of effectively joining the Russia‑Ukraine conflict. Tensions in Europe are increasing global uncertainty.
3. US August retail sales rose 0.6% month‑on‑month (expected 0.2%), marking three consecutive months of upside surprises and showing consumption resilience. Strong data could affect the Fed’s cut pace and prompt markets to reprice policy flexibility.
Gold and silver technical layout
Gold
- Daily: small bearish candle closed at 3644.36, still holding above moving averages, so the bullish structure is intact.
- Hourly: price has pulled back to the previous mid‑range structure, and the trading band has widened to 3600.00–3670.00.
- Trading: buy on dips around 3600.00 on the 15‑minute chart; sell near 3670.00; use stop‑loss on a decisive breakout.
Silver
- Daily: doji/positive candle closed at 41.801, bullish trend continues but momentum is weakening.
- Hourly: retraced to the start of the last rally and is trading in a 41.000–42.000 range.
- Trading: buy near 41.000; sell near 42.000; use stop‑loss on a decisive breakout.
Risk warning: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.