Market analysis

US initial jobless claims fell by 33,000 to 231,000. The prior week had spiked to 264,000, the highest since October 2021; this week’s drop brings the series back into a more normal range over the past four years.

The large swing in initial claims was mainly driven by an attempted identity‑fraud surge in Texas’s unemployment insurance system the previous week, which caused an abnormal spike in filings. That factor eased this week, causing claims to retreat. Continuing claims remain above the key 1.9 million level, indicating that new layoffs are relatively stable while it is still difficult for existing unemployed workers to find reemployment. Overall, the labor market still faces some pressure.

The University of Pennsylvania/Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for September recorded 23.2, well above the expected 2.5 and up from -0.3, marking a year‑to‑date high since January. The rebound suggests manufacturing activity has returned to expansion. By components, the new orders index rose 14 points to 12.4, the shipments index rose 22 points to 26.1, and the employment index was roughly unchanged, still reflecting hiring. Although price indices eased, they remain elevated. Forward‑looking indicators show surveyed firms generally expect growth over the next six months, suggesting a relatively optimistic manufacturing outlook in the Philly Fed region.

Trading strategy:

Spot gold

Long opportunity: buy on a stable decline to 3605.00, target 3625.00

Spot silver

Long opportunity: buy on a stable decline to 41.000, target 41.500

Risk warning: Trading markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of principal. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.