1、Core driver analysis

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25%. This is the first cut since December 2024. In theory, lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and are positive for gold prices.

The Fed projects another 50 basis points of cuts in 2025 and plans a looser monetary policy path for the next few years. A long-term low interest rate environment is overall positive for gold. Powell said the policy focus is shifting from inflation to employment, suggesting more support for economic growth.

However, Powell also said the cut was a risk-management decision and that there is no need to move quickly on rates. This cautious tone may limit gold’s short-term gains. With mixed factors, demand for gold as a safe asset remains solid.

2、Gold technical setup strategy

Gold broke the resistance at 3647.50 in Asian trading and is now around 3652.00. On the 15-minute chart, two moving averages show a bullish alignment and the short-term trend is strong.

Trading suggestions:

- Go long near current price around 3652.00

- Stop loss: below 3632.00

- Target: around 3698.00

3、Silver technical setup strategy

Silver broke the 42.250 resistance, and is now around 42.150. On the 15-minute chart, two moving averages show a bullish alignment and short-term upside probability is higher.

Trading suggestions:

- Buy on a pullback to support near 41.970

- Stop loss: below 41.630

- Target: around 42.900

Risk warning

Markets have unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of capital. This analysis is for reference only and is not direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.