Market review
Spot gold showed a consolidating range today. During the Asian session it traded narrowly around 3645.00 as bulls and bears were temporarily balanced. In the European session bears briefly took control and pushed the price down to a low near 3633.00, but bulls quickly fought back, driving gold up to a high near 3673.00, showing strong resilience. Gold is currently trading around 3660.00, with a daily range of about 40 dollars.
Technical analysis
- On the 1-hour chart, short-term moving averages are tangled: the 5-period and 10-period lines cross each other, indicating bulls and bears are in a stalemate and the market lacks a clear direction.
- Price is currently below the short-term moving averages, suggesting bears have a slight edge, but the MA entanglement also warns of a possible rapid reversal.
- The MACD runs below the zero line with a bearish crossover between the fast and slow lines; the green histogram bars have strengthened somewhat but have not expanded greatly, indicating that bearish momentum is limited and uncertainty remains high.
Drivers
Fed Chair Powell’s comments at the press conference have significantly influenced market expectations. He described the cut as a "risk-management measure," emphasized that the Fed is "not in a hurry to ease," and warned that inflation may prove stubborn. This ambiguous stance cooled expectations for aggressive easing. Market views are divided: Goldman Sachs sees this cut as the start of multiple moves and expects nearly 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, while ANZ says Powell's remarks are "not dovish at all," implying a slower easing pace. This policy divergence has increased gold’s volatility and left bulls and bears stuck at current levels.
Trading strategy reference
Spot gold
- Long opportunity: Buy on a stabilizing pullback to 3610.00, target 3635.00
Spot silver
- Long opportunity: Buy on a stabilizing pullback to 41.000, target 41.500
- Short opportunity: Short on a rejection near 42.500, target 42.200
Risk warning
Markets carry unpredictable risks, including but not limited to loss of capital. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment advice. Investors should make independent judgments and decisions based on their own risk tolerance.